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Canelo Alvarez vs Callum Smith: our prediction

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Callum Smith (27-0-0, 19 KOs) and Canelo Alvarez (53-1-2, 36 KOs) are all set to fight on December 19 and now we also have the location: Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas.

We do not usually provide predictions so early on and any development which may occur during the preparation may have a crucial impact on the match. So, it is usually recommended to be wise and wait for the day before the fight. Nah, we are not wise people, we are boxing enthusiasts. Enough for us!

Many experts think that Callum Smith can bring a real threat to Canelo as the Brit has many advantages such as his height, the reach and he is more comfortable at 168lbs. And, they are correct. Smith is a 6ft 3in kid appearing as a giant in front of his Mexican opponent which is shorter (5ft 9in) and he has only fought twice in the super-middleweight division when Canelo Alvarez defeated Rocky Fielding (28-2, 16 KOs), and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (51-5-1, 33 KOs). To be noted that both Fielding and Chavez Jr. were not at the same level of Callum Smith, who is much superior to those two fighters.

The same Callum Smith has remarked this point in a recent interview saying that the best Canelo fights at 160lbs. To be frank, he is right. This is a crucial aspect to be taken into consideration, much more than the difference of height since Canelo has the movements and the speed to hit hard the Brit with body shots. But the different in weight (in favour of Smith) is something that Canelo Alvarez needs to overcome immediately with his incomparable fluidity of movements in order to avoid getting fried in the first 2/3 rounds. This would be shocking.

However, we do not believe that the bout will go down that road given the maturity and experience of the Mexican super-champion. As a result, we see Canelo Alvarez growing more and more from the third round onwards reducing the distance with his mobility and combinations. The main target may slowly shift from the body to the head as soon as the distance is reduced. This would lead Canelo to control the match allowing him to bring home important points and eventually causing a TKO around the 7th to 9th round.

Another point that few commentators have mentioned is the short notice for Callum Smith. When you go against a world class boxer you need time to make sure that every detail is properly addressed. Callum Smith has 4 weeks to prepare to match and we honestly do not believe to be enough. As a result, we stick once again with the Mexican champion and his unrivalled ability of understanding tactics and strategies better than anyone else, combined with a devastating power for his category.

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